The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak has been ongoing
for over 5 months now and has spread to nearly every country in the world from its initial outbreak
in Wuhan, China. Europe, specially Italy and Spain, has been one of the most affected areas by
the virus, although there are now many other epicenters surging in other areas, such as North and
South America. In this project we will try to model the disease spread in our home country Spain
and try to find some useful parameters to analyze and characterize the outbreak. We have thus tried
to implement a modified SEIR model that includes the effects of the lockdown imposed on March
14th by the Spanish government.
Creating and estimating the model parameters has proven to be a rather difficult task for us,
since the data involving this disease is often unreliable and under continuous modification of criteria.
That's the reason why we have only achieved to model the outbreak up to a point and, given time
and difficulty constraints, we have been forced to settle for the results obtained. The algorithm for
the fitting of the model and estimation of the parameters was initially implemented in R language,
but due to complications and the authors' familiarity with the MATLAB environment, the latter
was chosen in the end.
2019/2020