This report analyses the spread of COVID-19 in european countries, focusing especially on Italy
and Spain, for which short-term predictions are made for the cumulative number of hospitalizations,
ICUs, discharges and deaths. Taking into account the different magnitudes considered, for 1 day
predictions the mean probability of a right guess is of 0.99, 0.94 for 2 day predictions, 0.89 for 3 day
predictions and 0.83 for 4 day predictions
2019/2020